TIL BDR GHALLEY | Thimphu
The National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) has urged government agencies, businesses and the public to adopt a precautionary approach as a very strong El Niño is expected to persist through the 2026 monsoon season, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures while leaving rainfall patterns uncertain.
El Niño conditions have developed over the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27, according to NCHM.
Seasonal forecasts indicate that monsoon rainfall across Bhutan is most likely to remain normal to slightly below normal between June and September, while both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to remain above normal.
Deputy Chief Statistical Officer of the Meteorological Services Division, Ugyen Chophel, said the current El Niño event ranks among the strongest observed globally.
“This year has been particularly significant because of the strength of the El Niño event. Globally, there has been considerable discussion about this year’s El Niño, with many referring to it as a ‘super El Niño’, essentially meaning a very strong El Niño event,” he said.
Although El Niño is generally associated with weaker summer monsoon rainfall across South Asia, Ugyen Chophel said its impact on Bhutan is not always direct or consistent because the country’s climate is influenced by multiple factors, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), regional weather systems and its mountainous terrain.
Historical records show that Bhutan has experienced near-normal rainfall even during some of the strongest El Niño events, highlighting the complexity of seasonal climate patterns.
“The relationship between El Niño and rainfall in Bhutan and the surrounding region is not always straightforward,” Ugyen Chophel said. “While El Niño generally increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, it does not guarantee drought.”
The southwest monsoon entered Bhutan on June 9, within the normal onset period, and rainfall recorded during June remained largely within the normal range despite expectations of a potentially weaker monsoon.
Southern parts of the country received above-normal rainfall, while some northern and eastern areas recorded slightly below-normal rainfall.
“The monsoon has performed reasonably well so far, and rainfall has generally been better than initially expected,” Ugyen Chophel said.
However, warmer conditions have been more consistent with seasonal forecasts, with most monitoring stations recording above-average daytime and nighttime temperatures since the beginning of the year.
Climate models currently indicate more than an 85 percent probability that strong El Niño conditions will continue through the monsoon season. At the same time, forecasts suggest that the Indian Ocean Dipole could shift to a positive phase later this year, potentially reducing some of El Niño’s drying influence.
Pema Seldon of the Meteorological Services Division said El Niño is expected to continue beyond the monsoon season into winter. She said the Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to shift from a neutral to a positive phase, which could increase rainfall.
“If the positive IOD and sea surface temperature conditions align as expected, we may also forecast snowfall in Thimphu during winter,” she said.
Previous El Niño years have coincided with several major weather and hydrological disasters in Bhutan, including widespread flooding associated with Severe Cyclonic Storm Aila in 2009, the Gasa Lemthang Tsho glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) and Amo Chhu flooding in 2015, and the Ungar flash flood and Thorthormi GLOF in 2023.
Ugyen Chophel said these events underline the importance of preparedness, although El Niño alone does not determine the occurrence of specific weather disasters.
He said seasonal outlooks should be used to strengthen preparedness rather than predict individual weather events.
“Our advice to government agencies, sectors and the public is to adopt a precautionary approach. Don’t wait for a deterministic forecast before taking action,” he said.
“At this stage, we cannot say with certainty whether the impacts will be severe, moderate or relatively minor. What we can say is that current indicators point to warmer conditions and the possibility of rainfall anomalies.”
Ugyen Chophel said producing seasonal forecasts alone is not enough, stressing that all stakeholders must have the capacity to act on climate information to protect lives and property.
“It is not just important to forecast. All stakeholders must also ensure they have the capacity to act on the information to save lives and property,” he said.
He encouraged communities to assess risks within their own localities, saying residents often have the best understanding of local vulnerabilities. He also urged people to remain updated through weather forecasts, warnings and advisories issued by NCHM.
He said disaster risk management should focus on preparing for worst-case scenarios, while communities should use local knowledge to identify risks related to floods, landslides and other hazards.
“We are more concerned about false negatives than false positives. If we fail to warn people about a hazardous event and it does occur, the consequences can be far more serious,” Ugyen Chophel said.
Meanwhile, the National High-Level Committee on Super El Niño Preparedness has held its second meeting to review Bhutan’s readiness for possible impacts of the projected climate event.
The committee reviewed preparedness measures related to agriculture and water resources, essential commodity stockpiles, household water security, forest fire preparedness, glacial lake risk mitigation, the Punakha Dzong evacuation drill for potential glacial lake outburst flood scenarios, and alternative energy options to strengthen national resilience.
The Royal Government said it remains committed to ensuring a coordinated and proactive response to safeguard lives, livelihoods and critical infrastructure against emerging climate risks.
NCHM said it will continue monitoring the evolution of El Niño and other climate drivers and issue updated seasonal outlooks, advisories and weather warnings as conditions evolve.
The agency said the current outlook is intended to enhance preparedness and should not be interpreted as a warning of any specific weather event.
